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Davvero interessante
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Rapid Deals By Email=20
To: pkrainer@???=20
Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2003 8:09 AM
Subject: Contract on Saddam?
=20
A contract on Saddam
Do you think America will take Saddam Hussein out? How long will it =
take? The opinion polls suggest America believes the Iraqi dictator's =
days are numbered. That belief is mirrored in data from the online =
trading exchange, Trade Sports . =20
When it comes to war, the United States can summon a remarkably high =
level of patriotism. Presidents ride high in the polls. The latest =
opinion polls show that 48 percent of Americans would back the use of =
armed force to topple Saddam Hussein, even if such action resulted in =
thousands of US casualties, with 36 percent opposed.=20
The truth about polls, however, is that they can be skewed by all kinds =
of factors. Sometimes, a man stopped on the street will tell a pollster =
what he thinks he should be saying, rather than what he truly believes =
himself.=20
Opinions backed by hard earned cash are about as genuine as you can get.
Trade Sports is an online trading exchange that up to now has =
restricted itself to contracts on sports. It has been particularly =
successful with its contracts on the new NFL season, with thousands of =
contracts bought and sold for each match. Over 3.5 mln contracts have =
been traded over its exchange since launch or $36,000,000 in risk =
capital.=20
Just like the New York Stock Exchange, there are buyers and sellers. I =
like the Giants at Arizona on Sunday, you like the Cardinals. The =
exchange offers a contract on the Giants to win and it's currently =
trading at 59 (our of 100 or approximately 4/6). That means the market =
thinks the Giants have a 59% chance of winning. I buy 100 Giants =
contracts, you sell 100. If the Giants win, the exchange settles them at =
100. I make 41 'ticks' (100 minus 59), which gives me $410 ($.10 a tick =
X 41 X 100). If the Giants lose, I drop $590 and you make the same =
amount.=20
The latest development is that traders can now trade politics. One =
intriguing contract is based on whether Saddam will be in power by the =
end of December, March 2003 or June 2003. On Tuesday 24 September the =
market had the contract for him not to be Iraqi leader on 31 December =
trading at 23. That was down a noticeable four points on the previous =
close. =20
What does it mean? Perhaps it means traders are becoming sceptical about =
the prospects of a mooted strike.=20
Interestingly, however, the contract on Saddam not to be leader by March =
31, 2003 was trading at 60 (4/6). Add another three months, with a =
contract on him not being in power come June 30, 2003, and the price =
rises to 80 (1/4). That means the market is saying he only has a 20 =
percent chance of still being the Iraqi ruler on that date.
Just as football fans tend to trade on their favourite team, sometimes =
against all the best evidence, is there a possibility that some traders =
could be swayed by patriotic feelings?
The fact is that Saddam Hussein has been president and dictator of Iraq =
since 1979. In August of 1990 Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait. A US-led =
alliance kicked his forces out of Kuwait in the Gulf War. That war ended =
in February of 1991, with Saddam still in power. More than 11 years on, =
his reign continues.=20
Meanwhile, the world outside of America is unsure about whether =
attacking Iraq is the correct course of action, although in recent days =
rhetoric suggest others may be falling into line with the US. Given all =
we know, is it possible - even probable - that the market is too bullish =
on the chances of Saddam not being in power in December, let alone 80 =
bid (1/4) for June '03?=20
Whatever happens, it will be interesting to see how these contracts =
trade on Trade Sports over the coming weeks. =20
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We respect your privacy. You have opted in to receive =
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If you would no longer like to receive these offers via =
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Davvero interessante</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dreturns-ovvntnuvttgmtaa@???=20
href=3D"mailto:returns-ovvntnuvttgmtaa@rapiddealsbyemail.com">Rapid =
Deals By=20
Email</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dpkrainer@???=20
href=3D"mailto:pkrainer@tiscalinet.it">pkrainer@???</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, March 27, 2003 8:09 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Contract on Saddam?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<TABLE height=3D30 width=3D320 border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD width=3D320 height=3D30>
<P align=3Dcenter><IMG height=3D30=20
src=3D"http://instant-mall-online.net/rapiddealbyemailrtarget.gif" =
width=3D300></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><FONT lang=3D0 =
face=3DArial size=3D2=20
FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF" PTSIZE=3D"10">A contract on Saddam<BR><BR>Do you =
think America=20
will take Saddam Hussein out? How long will it take? The opinion polls =
suggest=20
America believes the Iraqi dictator=92s days are numbered. That belief =
is mirrored=20
in data from the online trading exchange, <A=20
href=3D"http://click1.rapiddealsbyemail.com/sp/t.pl?id=3D146835:113730177=
">Trade=20
Sports</A> . <BR><BR>When it comes to war, the United States can =
summon a=20
remarkably high level of patriotism. Presidents ride high in the polls. =
The=20
latest opinion polls show that 48 percent of Americans would back the =
use of=20
armed force to topple Saddam Hussein, even if such action resulted in =
thousands=20
of US casualties, with 36 percent opposed. <BR><BR>The truth about =
polls,=20
however, is that they can be skewed by all kinds of factors. Sometimes, =
a man=20
stopped on the street will tell a pollster what he thinks he should be =
saying,=20
rather than what he truly believes himself. <BR><BR>Opinions backed by =
hard=20
earned cash are about as genuine as you can get.<BR><BR><A=20
href=3D"http://click1.rapiddealsbyemail.com/sp/t.pl?id=3D146836:113730177=
">Trade=20
Sports</A> is an online trading exchange that up to now has =
restricted=20
itself to contracts on sports. It has been particularly successful with =
its=20
contracts on the new NFL season, with thousands of contracts bought and =
sold for=20
each match. Over 3.5 mln contracts have been traded over its exchange =
since=20
launch or $36,000,000 in risk capital. <BR><BR>Just like the New York =
Stock=20
Exchange, there are buyers and sellers. I like the Giants at Arizona on =
Sunday,=20
you like the Cardinals. The exchange offers a contract on the Giants to =
win and=20
it=92s currently trading at 59 (our of 100 or approximately 4/6). That =
means the=20
market thinks the Giants have a 59% chance of winning. I buy 100 =
Giants=20
contracts, you sell 100. If the Giants win, the exchange settles them at =
100. I=20
make 41 =91ticks=92 (100 minus 59), which gives me $410 ($.10 a tick X =
41 X 100). If=20
the Giants lose, I drop $590 and you make the same amount. <BR><BR>The =
latest=20
development is that traders can now trade politics. One intriguing =
contract is=20
based on whether Saddam will be in power by the end of December, March =
2003 or=20
June 2003. On Tuesday 24 September the market had the contract for him =
not to be=20
Iraqi leader on 31 December trading at 23. That was down a noticeable =
four=20
points on the previous close. <BR><BR>What does it mean? Perhaps =
it means=20
traders are becoming sceptical about the prospects of a mooted strike.=20
<BR><BR>Interestingly, however, the contract on Saddam not to be leader =
by March=20
31, 2003 was trading at 60 (4/6). Add another three months, with a =
contract on=20
him not being in power come June 30, 2003, and the price rises to 80 =
(1/4). That=20
means the market is saying he only has a 20 percent chance of still =
being the=20
Iraqi ruler on that date.<BR><BR>Just as football fans tend to trade on =
their=20
favourite team, sometimes against all the best evidence, is there a =
possibility=20
that some traders could be swayed by patriotic feelings?<BR><BR>The fact =
is that=20
Saddam Hussein has been president and dictator of Iraq since 1979. In =
August of=20
1990 Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait. A US-led alliance kicked his forces =
out of=20
Kuwait in the Gulf War. That war ended in February of 1991, with Saddam =
still in=20
power. More than 11 years on, his reign continues. <BR><BR>Meanwhile, =
the world=20
outside of America is unsure about whether attacking Iraq is the correct =
course=20
of action, although in recent days rhetoric suggest others may be =
falling into=20
line with the US. Given all we know, is it possible - even probable - =
that the=20
market is too bullish on the chances of Saddam not being in power in =
December,=20
let alone 80 bid (1/4) for June =9103? <BR><BR>Whatever happens, it will =
be=20
interesting to see how these contracts trade on <A=20
href=3D"http://click1.rapiddealsbyemail.com/sp/t.pl?id=3D146837:113730177=
">Trade=20
Sports</A> over the coming weeks. </FONT><IMG height=3D0=20
src=3D"http://click1.rapiddealsbyemail.com/sp/t.pl?id=3D146838:113730177&=
amp;o=3D1"=20
width=3D0 border=3D0> <A name=3Dunsub><BR>
<P><BR><!-- Email-Address: pkrainer@??? --><A name=3Dunsub>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D5 align=3Dcenter bgColor=3Dwhite =
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<TBODY>
<TR>
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<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D600 align=3Dcenter =
border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD height=3D1>
<HR noShade>
</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dmiddle><FONT face=3Darial,sans-serif color=3Dblack =
size=3D2>We=20
respect your privacy. You have opted in to receive updates =
<BR>on=20
the web's best discount offers while visiting one of our =
partner=20
sites.</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dmiddle><FONT face=3Darial,sans-serif color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><BR>If you would no longer like to receive these =
offers via=20
email, <BR>you can unsubscribe by sending a blank email to =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:unsub-113730177-8722@rapiddealsbyemail.com">unsub-11373017=
7-8722@???</A></FONT>=20
</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dmiddle><FONT face=3Darial,sans-serif=20
size=3D2><I>OR</I></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dmiddle><FONT face=3Darial,sans-serif color=3Dblack =
size=3D2>Sending a postal mail to: <BR><BR>Customer Service =
<BR>3236=20
Grand Avenue, Ste. I - #669 <BR>Laramie, WY 82070</FONT> =
</TD></TR>
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<TD align=3Dmiddle><BR><FONT face=3Darial,sans-serif =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><I>This message was sent to address=20
pkrainer@???</I></FONT> </TD></TR>
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