[Cm-roma] [ADV] WARNING: Alert on the Art Market 2 - Alerte …

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Autor: ArtMarketInsight
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Asunto: [Cm-roma] [ADV] WARNING: Alert on the Art Market 2 - Alerte sur le marche de l Art 2
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<TITLE>Alerte sur le march&eacute; de l'art II</TITLE>
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<DIV align="right"><A href="#FR">en fran&ccedil;ais</A></DIV>
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<TD colspan=3> <A href="http://web.artprice.com/AMI/AMI.aspx?id=MTM0NDg2NTY4NzI4OTk=&l=en">
<IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs01.gif" width=280 height=426 border="0"></A></TD>
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<H3 align="center"><A href="http://web.artprice.com/start.aspx?l=en"><IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/artprice_140n.gif" border="0"></A></H3>
<H3>A string of black Septembers</H3>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>First volumes slumped and then prices. For the third consecutive year, September
2003 has brought a crisis. But unlike previous years, this one seems here to stay.
Can the market still recover?</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P><I><FONT size="1">"The art market will collapse tonight at 6 o'clock"</FONT></I></P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
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<TD colspan="3" valign="top"><FONT size="1">Ben 2003 </FONT></TD>
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<TD colspan="6" height="35" valign="top"><IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs05.jpg" width=544 height=59></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs06.jpg" width=39 height=263></TD>
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<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">The market rocks in 2001</FONT> </H3>
<P>The first September crisis to rock the market hit in 2001, after the drama
of 11 September. After five years of an almost unbroken upward trend, the Artprice
Index marked a lull. In September 2001 the index fell 5.4% below September 2000
levels, but with catalogues full the market was not yet in a mood to worry. No
one wanted to relive the nightmare of 1991 when the steam went out of the eighties
market. Collectors and dealers, who were confident in the market's strength, shrugged
off the unfavourable economic climate and were quickly back in the auction rooms
as soon as the New York season began. Bidding remained brisk and prices rose by
3% over the year. And yet for the first time in 6 years, turnover fell.</P>
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<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs08.jpg" width=22 height=263></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs09.jpg" width=146 height=263></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs10.jpg" width=39 height=99></TD>
<TD width="16"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs11.jpg" width=16 height=99></TD>
<TD width="225"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs12.jpg" width=225 height=99></TD>
<TD width="96"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs13.jpg" width=96 height=99></TD>
<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs14.jpg" width=22 height=99></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs15.jpg" width=146 height=99></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs16.jpg" width=39 height=388></TD>
<TD width="16"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs17.jpg" width=16 height=388></TD>
<TD colspan=3 background="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs18.jpg" valign="top">
<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">The market dips in 2002</FONT></H3>
<P>During the stock market crash of 2002, art works were increasingly seen as
safe investments to such a degree that investors started to hang onto their "art
assets". The number of lots up for auction fell 15% in a year. The shortage
of artworks fuelled high prices for the first season. But by September 2002, afflicted
by an incessant economic crisis, an uncertain stock market and the baleful influence
of a grieving US already beginning to contemplate war in Iraq, the art market,
too, began to take on a sombre tone. Concerned art collectors became cautious
and selective and were slow to bid at auction. Figures were disastrous. Since
September 2001, lots sold had fallen 47%, no-sales ratios reached 44% and prices
tumbled to 1999 levels. New York was the hardest-hit of the main art centres.
But the European auction houses seemed to hold up well. France continued to enjoy
the effects of the auction reform and London was stealing market share from New
York. </P>
<P>In October-November, with an upturn in the stock markets and a cluster of important
and attractive auctions, the passion that always drives art collectors broke out
again and prices started to climb once more. The price index eventually posted
a 4.3% rise for 2002 as a whole. The collapse in Q3 2002 looked to be no more
than a wake-up call.</P>
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<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs19.jpg" width=146 height=388></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs20.jpg" width=39 height=13></TD>
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<TD width="225"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs22.jpg" width=225 height=13></TD>
<TD width="96"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs23.jpg" width=96 height=13></TD>
<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs24.jpg" width=22 height=13></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs25.jpg" width=146 height=13></TD>
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<TD width="51">&nbsp;</TD>
<TD width="485">
<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">The market slides in 2003</FONT></H3>
<P>A wake-up call, though, can quickly turn into a distress signal. Once again,
prices in September have been down on six months ago after a 7% decline in Q3.
But will they recover as quickly as they have done in the past? </P>
<P>Unlikely.</P>
<P>For one thing, this time the decline came from within the art market. Unlike
previous jolts, there were no obvious geopolitical or economic events to interfere
with its smooth running. The current collapse is deep and structural: a decline
in lots sold, lack of investor confidence, auction houses struggling to fill their
catalogues, etc.</P>
<P>For another, the emerging crisis seems to be on an international scale. When
the US market lost 28 points of market share between the first half of 1999 and
the first half of 2002, it seemed to suggest America was bearing the weight of
this crisis on its own. But don't be deceived, it is spreading to Europe. Catalogues
for auctions scheduled in France, Germany and the UK are already becoming scarcer.
</P>
<P>The low number of lots sold is paralysing the market. And worse still, the
slump in sales is forcing galleries and artists to sell works at any price, simply
to cover their costs. Now that reserve prices no longer underpin the market, high
bidding becomes a luxury investors cannot afford. This has left the market locked
into a spiral of crisis which is being driven by a lack of liquidity.</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P><FONT size="3"><A href="http://web.artprice.com/AMI/ami.aspx?l=en">Art<FONT color="#FF0000">Market</FONT>Insight
contents</A></FONT></P>
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<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P><A name="FR"></A></P>
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<TD><A href="#EN">in english</A></TD>
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<TD colspan=3> <A href="http://web.artprice.com/AMI/AMI.aspx?id=MTM0NDg2NTY4NzI4OTk=&l=fr"><IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs01.gif" width=280 height=426 border="0"></A></TD>
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<H3 align="center"><A href="http://web.artprice.com/start.aspx?l=fr"><IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/artprice_140n.gif" border="0"></A></H3>
<H3><BR>
Les Septembre Noirs </H3>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>Apr&egrave;s le volume de transactions, c'est le niveau des prix qui baisse.
Cette ann&eacute;e encore, pour la troisi&egrave;me fois cons&eacute;cutive, le
mois de septembre est annonciateur d'une crise. Mais &agrave; la diff&eacute;rence
des pr&eacute;c&eacute;dentes, celle-ci semble s'enraciner. Le march&eacute; pourra-t-il
encore s'en relever ?</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
</TD>
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<TD colspan="3" valign="top"><FONT size="1">Ben 2003 </FONT> </TD>
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<TD colspan="6" height="35" valign="top"><IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs05.jpg" width=544 height=59></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs06.jpg" width=39 height=263></TD>
<TD colspan=3 background="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs07.jpg" valign="bottom">
<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">Le march&eacute; secou&eacute; en 2001 </FONT> </H3>
<P>En septembre 2001, le march&eacute; de l'art avait trembl&eacute; une premi&egrave;re
fois au son du drame du 11 septembre. Apr&egrave;s cinq ann&eacute;es de hausse
quasiment ininterrompue, l'Artprice Index marque le pas. En septembre 2001, il
est inf&eacute;rieur de 5,4% au niveau atteint en septembre 2000. Les catalogues
fort charg&eacute;s rassurent. Personne ne veut revivre l'essoufflement des prix
de 1991. Collectionneurs et professionnels, confiants dans la solidit&eacute;
du march&eacute;, ferment les yeux sur la conjoncture &eacute;conomique peu favorable
et r&eacute;animent rapidement les salles des ventes d&egrave;s les premiers rendez-vous
new-yorkais. Les surench&egrave;res vont bon train et les prix grimpent : ils
progressent de 3% sur l'ann&eacute;e. Mais pour la premi&egrave;re fois depuis
6 ans, le chiffre d'affaires baisse&#133;</P>
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<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs08.jpg" width=22 height=263></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs09.jpg" width=146 height=263></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs10.jpg" width=39 height=99></TD>
<TD width="16"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs11.jpg" width=16 height=99></TD>
<TD width="225"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs12.jpg" width=225 height=99></TD>
<TD width="96"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs13.jpg" width=96 height=99></TD>
<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs14.jpg" width=22 height=99></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs15.jpg" width=146 height=99></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs16.jpg" width=39 height=388></TD>
<TD width="16"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs17.jpg" width=16 height=388></TD>
<TD colspan=3 background="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs18.jpg" valign="top">
<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">Le march&eacute; fl&eacute;chit en 2002 </FONT></H3>
<P>En 2002, pendant que la bourse s'effondre, l'&#156;uvre d'art devient de plus
en plus une valeur refuge. Au point que les amateurs tendent &agrave; immobiliser
leurs " actifs artistiques " : le nombre de lots mis en vente chute
de 15% en un an. Cette p&eacute;nurie d'&#156;uvres soutient les prix durant toute
la premi&egrave;re saison. En septembre 2002, subissant une incessante crise &eacute;conomique,
sous le joug d'une bourse d&eacute;stabilisante et l'influence d'une Am&eacute;rique
toujours en deuil et annonciatrice de ses intentions belliqueuses en Irak, le
march&eacute; de l'art se pare aussi de noir. Inquiets, les acheteurs d'&#156;uvres
d'art se montrent attentistes et ultra s&eacute;lectifs. Les mains h&eacute;sitent
&agrave; se lever dans les salles. Les chiffres sont catastrophiques : par rapport
&agrave; septembre 2001, le volume de transactions chute de 47%, le taux d'invendus
atteint 44% et les prix d&eacute;gringolent sous leur niveau de 1999. Principale
place de march&eacute; affect&eacute;e : New-York. Malgr&eacute; tout, les maisons
de ventes europ&eacute;ennes semblent r&eacute;sister. La France jouit encore
des effets de la r&eacute;forme des ventes publiques et Londres gagne des parts
sur New-York. </P>
<P>En octobre/novembre, gr&acirc;ce &agrave; la passion partag&eacute;e qui anime
encore les collectionneurs, aux march&eacute;s boursiers qui renouent avec la
hausse et &agrave; une concentration de vacations importantes et attractives,
les prix grimpent de nouveau. Finalement, sur les 12 mois &eacute;coul&eacute;s
en 2002, l'indice des prix affiche une progression de 4,3%. L'&eacute;croulement
du troisi&egrave;me trimestre 2002 semble n'&ecirc;tre qu'un signal d'alarme.</P>
</TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs19.jpg" width=146 height=388></TD>
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<TD width="39"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs20.jpg" width=39 height=13></TD>
<TD width="16"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs21.jpg" width=16 height=13></TD>
<TD width="225"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs22.jpg" width=225 height=13></TD>
<TD width="96"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs23.jpg" width=96 height=13></TD>
<TD width="22"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs24.jpg" width=22 height=13></TD>
<TD width="146"> <IMG src="http://web.artprice.com/img/b/septnoirs25.jpg" width=146 height=13></TD>
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<TD width="51">&nbsp;</TD>
<TD width="485">
<H3><FONT color="#FF0000">Le march&eacute; c&egrave;de en 2003 </FONT></H3>
<P>Du signal d'alarme, le march&eacute; risque de passer aux signaux de d&eacute;tresse.
</P>
<P>Une fois encore, les prix sont en septembre inf&eacute;rieurs &agrave; ce qu'ils
&eacute;taient six mois auparavant. Ils ont baiss&eacute; de 7% au troisi&egrave;me
trimestre. Mais se rel&egrave;veront-ils aussi ais&eacute;ment qu'ils ne l'ont
fait jusqu'&agrave; pr&eacute;sent ? Les chances sont minces. </P>
<P>Tout d'abord la baisse est endog&egrave;ne au march&eacute; : contrairement
aux pr&eacute;c&eacute;dents soubresauts, aucun &eacute;v&eacute;nement g&eacute;opolitique
ou &eacute;conomique externe ne semble avoir entach&eacute; son bon fonctionnement.
L'enfoncement actuel est profond et structurel : baisse du volume d'&eacute;changes,
manque de confiance des acheteurs, difficult&eacute;s des maisons de ventes &agrave;
boucler des catalogues&#133;</P>
<P>Ensuite, la crise qui pointe son nez semble mondiale. En perdant 28 points
de parts de march&eacute; entre le 1er semestre 1999 et le 1er semestre 2002,
tout porte &agrave; croire que les Etats-Unis sont les seuls &agrave; porter le
poids de cette crise. D&eacute;trompez-vous, celle-ci s'est propag&eacute;e en
Europe : les catalogues des ventes fran&ccedil;aises, allemandes et anglaises
se rar&eacute;fient. </P>
<P>Les faibles volumes de transactions g&egrave;lent le march&eacute;. Pire, sans
un volume d'affaires suffisant, les galeries et professionnels sont amen&eacute;s
&agrave; vendre &agrave; tout prix pour faire face &agrave; leurs frais. Si les
prix de r&eacute;serve ne sont plus l&agrave; pour soutenir le march&eacute;,
surench&eacute;rir devient un luxe qu'il est inutile de s'offrir d&eacute;sormais.
Aujourd'hui, le march&eacute; est pris dans un engrenage de crises dont les rouages
sont gripp&eacute;s par manque de liquidit&eacute;.</P>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P><FONT size="3"><A href="http://web.artprice.com/AMI/ami.aspx?l=fr">Sommaire
Art<FONT color="#FF0000">Market</FONT>Insight</A></FONT></P>
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